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The serious economic situation of the general crisis of the bureaucratic capitalism that has established itself as the biggest crisis in the country’s history is the basis on which all aberrations and disgraces can rise. The phenomenon Bolsonaro, followed by the ongoing military coup since 2015 (unleashed as “Lava Jato “ and always being operated with the careful monitoring of the military High Command and coordinated by the Yankee imperialism), is necessary for the reaction. Only the unrivaled upsurge of the worsening of the political regime and negation of the democratic rights can ensure the rising of exploitation, without which the economic crisis cannot be partially supressed.
Those reactionary immediate tasks are a matter of survival for the bureaucratic capitalism. The ruling classes with the singular great bourgeois divided between several monopolies and political power groups ( therefore without the whole view) and divided in struggle for the hegemony in the State power demand a strategical vision of the reactionary State backbone. This is a rotten task of the High Command of the Armed Forces (ACFA), as a “collective capitalist” and to submit as well some power groups of the ruling classes to impose sole lines and directions for maintaining the totality of the old bureaucratic-landownership order and its exploitation and oppression system.
Such is the coup those gorillas have unleashed trying to maintain under their leadership and they have learned very well the 1964 experience. They scaled the reserve generals to impale the shift government (first Temer’s and then Bolsonaro’s) while, by chantages and threats ( using “Lava Jato” and permittting the far right-wing to act for raising the tension), constraint the institutions and general political forces ( mostly the centre right-wing and opportunism) in a way to guardianship them and guarantee that the political situation development happens on the way previously decided, following the reactionary tasks.
Therefore, the disgrace in which the Nation lives nowadays is due to these generals, heroes of a war without a war. Firstly, because they are the military government in fact. Second, because they have always been responsible for preventing the Democratic Revolution in our motherland, maintaining it in a state of decomposition on which now the staunch moralists rise themselves.
II
Luis Inácio’s Liberation by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) is a very relevant ingredient for the political situation. The decision is a result of a centre right-wing force accumulation in STF trying to give a death blow in “Lava Jato” ( a death blow guaranteed by the demoralization of it with the dissemination done by the “hackers” of the Yankee hoax and meddling).
Before such a decision, the military right-wing, although enraged, cannot do anything without precipitating a much bigger institutional crisis. Now, it only remains to take advantage of the false polarization PT-Bolsonaro for better adapting their coup plan through institutional channels or justifying it through openly illegal ways..
On the other hand, Bolsonaro, the weak, tried to take advantage of the agitation that the centre right-wing manouevre has caused in the whole reactionary public opinion. Isolated and noticing the worsening of the difficulties for the generals’ coup plan, he saw the opportunity to create unstability, climbing positions and, perhaps, reaching small successes for his plans to “turn the table” in ACFA so that, in the medium term, they can draw it for an open coup adventure. He failed shamefully and had to swallow the three ex-commanders of the Armed Forces’ resignations, increasing his isolation. Now, Bolsonaro is detracted before the public opinion and a hostage (consented) of the voracious and insatiable parlamentarians, thirsty for public funds and still more harassed by the Parlamentary Committeee of Inquiry (I) for several crimes he has commited after taking over the presidency.
According to newspaper writers of the reactionary press, Bolsonaro urged the high officers of the active so that they would pronounce themselves at the “Villas Bos style” when Luiz Inácio was liberated. The proposition was refused by Edson Pujol and, probably, with the backing of the ex-Defense Minister, Fernando Azevedo, since ACFA tries to unlink the image of the forces with the image of a genocide government. Immediately there after, the hegemonic in ACFA developed more positions; it maintened advanced key posts that Bolsonaro had in the Foreign Affairs, from where he sabotaged the international relations in the business for obtaining the vaccine, besides damaging the apple of the eyes of the economy, the agribusiness. Bolsonaro, in turn, headstrong, increments his presence in the auxiliary forces (military police) trying to multiply his pieces on the board and being capable to urge the ACFA as an element of instability and ineutralizable ( see agitation and riots in Bahia).
Therefore, the ones that think the generals Luiz Eduardo Ramos and Braga Netto ( new Defense Minister) are with Bolsonaro and against the ex-commanders of the forces who left the posts are wrong, and are also wrong the ones who believe that the substitutes are Bolsonaro’s folks. The dismissal of the three Armed Forces ex-commanders – a fact powered by ACFA to wear Bolsonaro with the officers – gave way to the nomination of other three who maintain fundamentally the same position of the former ones and have it in a more explicit way. Bolsonaro receives the enormous wear and tear generated by his attempt, always despised by the militaries, to intrigue to deepen the division in the command of the forces.
With the failed manoeuvre, Bolsonaro’s isolation is so big that ACFA is in condition of consolidating the position to try to stop the disgrace of the pandemic caused by the genocidal politics of the fascist president, with the cumplicity of the generals, appeasing for not dividing the Armed Forces. They try to reverse the failures for obtaining the vaccines and the vacination plan, having the institution’s name linked to the criminal action of the Health Ministery, in addition to the incompetence of the general, head of the logistics.
In turn, in the government’s action, the ACFA’s race is against time in the attempt to curb the death toll. If the daily average that has already exceeded 4,000 deaths comes to 5,000, it can precipitate the explosion of revolts that so far have been dampened by the daily quest of the impoverished masses for survival, despite the lack of health care with the hospital collapse. In case such a process explodes, it will be unsustainable for the president of the Chamber of Deputies to insure Bolsonaro’s impeachment. With it all justifications for the complete military intervention of the Armed Forces will be given with great wear, a not ideal scenario ( see the ACFA slogan for their coup: “Stability, legality, legitimacy”). On the verge of such a disorder, it is evident the Armed Forces will be united and will hardly act to ward off Bolsonaro by force, fearing the division of the Armed Forces (from Tenentismo onward it is a law of the Armed Forces performance the unity at any price, since the command knows that this is the guarantee of maintenance of the old order).
In addition, looking at 2022, the plan of the ACFA right-wing in the medium term, if the government keeps up, can take two ways : use the false bias PT-Bolsonaro to abandon the fascist captain’s plate and embark on the big team of a right-wing candidacy with the capacity to attract all public opinion anti-PT and even some sectors that are today bolsonarists (some say Sérgio Moro, others, general Santos Cruz may come to head the plate). Depending on the grade of putrefaction of the old order on its general crisis, the generals can right before the election arm any great lie or use any element of the political situation that flaunts the public opinion to justify the complete military intervention. The impeachment can be one element and the ride of the masses, the other.
Before all these sceneries, the ACFA is working now the consensus with the officials that it will be necessary the complete military intervention to reestablish the order in case it falls, but advocate to do it under Bolsonaro’s command is an adventure that will take the Armed Forces for a blood bath against the people. However, the generals know about the colossal difficulties in which the country is already immersed, a situation in which has a relevant weigh the decision on Luiz Inácio, when the country is divided and towards the civil war, an impossible situation to be avoided during the time to come.
Everything will depend on the new events of the mutual relation between the forces in struggle: 1) extreme right-wing, 2) civil and military right- wing, 3) centre right-wing (traditional right), opportunism and 5) the masses mobilized and, especially those directed by their conscious element.
Opportunism, on the other side, gathers very little. The liberation of Luiz Inácio did not generate such a commotion they imagined, demonstrating the defeat of their project under the historical-strategic point of view. Under this point of view the people’s masses are temporarily orphans of a political project and the dispute for conquering it is in Bolsonaro’s fascist preaching and the revolutionary-democratic way of New Democracy that has the duty for boosting its penetration as much as possible with the revolutionary action or propaganda. It is an unavoidable duty and any procrastination will turn out to be a crime.
III
The military crisis that came to the surface is, at the end, a good thing. Some, pretending to ignore it, can see, before the facts, the generals as a legal force. Those are the ers of the constitutional illusions. Those poor things will only wake up when the devil catches them by the feet. Some others, honest persons, understanding the coup performance of the generals, will be frightened and will regret the imminent death of democracy. To those we will answer: you cannot regret the death of something that has never existed. The old democracy is a mask and behind it the torture, execution, misery, servitude and negation of the democratic liberties have always existed, even that some of them were consented only for some and while would not be inconvenient. Now everything has been stripped. And one can not be scared. All of this is a real symptom and foreshadowing of the times in which we live and act: the time of the Nation’s complete transformation as part of the change of the human history. The winding course of the events promises great glory to the people that overcome the greatest ignominy. This will be the sealed fate for the Brazilian people, in case they are united to a solid proletarian vanguard.
